Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.